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上市公司财务风险的预测对企业和投资者的意义重大,本文以中国上市公司为研究对象,以上市公司被特别处理作为上市公司陷入财务困境的标志,在沪深股市中选取19家财务困境公司和38家正常公司作为样本,应用Clementine软件,利用财务指标建立Logit回归模型,以探索同新经济形势相适应的我国上市公司财务预警模型。根据所建立的模型对2016年部分上市公司财务状况进行预测分析,并在独立的预测样本集上进行比较,实验结果表明统计模型能有效地进行财务困境预测。
The forecast of financial risk for listed companies is of great significance to enterprises and investors. This paper takes Chinese listed companies as the research object, listed companies are specially treated as the symbol of listed companies caught in financial distress. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, 19 financial distress companies And 38 normal companies as samples, using the Clementine software, the use of financial indicators to establish Logit regression model to explore with the new economic situation in China’s listed companies financial early warning model. According to the established model, the financial status of some listed companies in 2016 is predicted and compared, and the results are compared on independent forecasting sample sets. The experimental results show that the statistical model can effectively predict the financial distress.