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随着十八届四中全会提出全面推进依法治国总目标,依法治国成为当今时代的重大主题。但是,近来却缕缕发生诸如呼格吉勒图案之类的重大刑事冤案。究其原因,关键在于没有切实执行“排除合理怀疑”等基本刑事审判原则,而在案件侦查中所犯的特设性错误是造成诸多错案的罪魁祸首之一。“特设性”假设是司法人员在法律实践活动中运用溯因推理时极易出现的错误。因此,本文首先分析溯因推理的思维特征,阐释了溯因推理应用于司法实务等法律领域的原因,然后从概率角度提出如何保证溯因推理的可靠性,从而有效避免了特设性错误,展示了溯因推理在刑事审判中对公正司法的重要性。
With the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee proposing to comprehensively promote the general goal of governing the country according to law, ruling the country by law has become a major theme of our times. However, there have been recent serious criminal cases of injustice such as the Hogg Gillet. The crux of the matter lies in the failure to effectively implement the basic criminal trial principles of “excluding reasonable suspicions,” and the ad hoc mistakes made in the investigation of cases are one of the chief culprits in numerous wrong cases. The “ad hoc” assumption is a flaw that is most apt to arise when judicial officers apply abusive reasoning in legal practice. Therefore, this paper firstly analyzes the thinking characteristics of abduction reasoning, explains the reasons why abduction reasoning is applied to the legal field such as judicial practice, and then proposes how to ensure the reliability of abortion reasoning from the perspective of probability so as to effectively avoid ad hoc errors, It shows the importance of abusive reasoning to fair justice in criminal trials.