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为准确高效地预测平沟矿掘进过程中的突出危险性,确定各突出预测指标的相对敏感性,采用高压定容吸附解吸试验和钻屑解吸指标模拟测定方法,对钻屑解吸指标K_1和Δh_2与压力P的关系进行了研究,另外根据平沟矿16#煤层现场跟踪实测数据,在模糊数学和统计分析理论的基础上建立了预测指标敏感度函数,对预测指标敏感性进行定量研究.结果表明:K_1和Δh_2与压力P呈幂函数关系;K_1值敏感度最大,Δh_2值较为敏感,S值不敏感。因此选用K_1值做为预测指标,辅助指标使用Δh_2,从而提高了预测准确率,保证了安全高效掘进.
In order to accurately and effectively predict the prominent danger in the process of Pinggou coal mine tunneling and determine the relative sensitivity of each prominent prediction index, the adsorption and desorption tests of drill cuttings and the desorption index of drilling cuttings were carried out. The desorption indexes K_1 and Δh_2 And the relationship between pressure and P, and based on the measured data of on-the-spot track of 16 # coal seam in Pinggou Mine, the sensitivity index of forecast index was established based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics and statistical analysis, and the sensitivity of forecast index was quantitatively studied.Results It shows that: K_1 and Δh_2 have a power function relationship with pressure P; K_1 value is the most sensitive, Δh_2 value is more sensitive, S value is not sensitive. Therefore, the K_1 value is selected as the forecasting index and the auxiliary index is used as Δh_2, which improves the prediction accuracy and ensures safe and efficient excavation.