论文部分内容阅读
高速公路交通事件的影响范围预测主要包括两个方面:排队长度预测和延误预测.在对排队长度和延误进行实时预测时,需精确预测出事件发生期间的交通流量和通行能力、事件持续时间及车辆到达事件点的时间等参数,而事实上,用于确定这些参数的信息是非常复杂的,得到的这些参数值是模糊的,但是其变化范围是可以精确确定的.充分考虑上述参数的模糊特性,及事件发生期间的交通流量和通行能力的模糊关系,运用α截集表示了车辆到达离去曲线,建立了交通事件排队长度模糊预测模型和延误模糊预测模型.利用2001年6月16日发生在美国210-E高速公路的交通事件验证了该模型的可行性,并分析了事件发生期间交通流量和通行能力及事件持续时间的模糊度变化对排队长度和延误预测结果的影响.
The prediction of the impact range of expressway traffic incident mainly includes two aspects: the prediction of queue length and the prediction of delay.When real-time prediction of the queue length and delay, the traffic flow and traffic capacity, event duration and The time when the vehicle reaches the event point, etc. In fact, the information used to determine these parameters is very complicated, and the values of these parameters are fuzzy, but the range of variation can be precisely determined. Considering the fuzzy Characteristics and the fuzzy relationship between traffic flow and traffic capacity during the incident, the α-cutoff is used to express the arrival-departure curve of vehicles and a fuzzy prediction model of traffic incident queue length and delay fuzzy prediction model are established.Using the method of June 16, 2001 The traffic accidents on the 210-E Freeway in the United States validated the feasibility of this model and analyzed the influence of the change of ambiguity of traffic flow and traffic capacity and event duration on the queue length and the delay prediction results during the event.