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本文利用四川省543个生猪养殖户调查数据,基于内生转换回归模型(ESRM),研究生猪散养农户退出决策对家庭收入水平的影响。研究结果表明:一是存在积极的选择偏差影响农户家庭收入水平,且具有较高收入水平的农户家庭更倾向于退出生猪散养;二是散养农户退出生猪养殖能够显著改善家庭收入水平;三是目前仍在进行散养的农户,如果退出,其家庭收入水平将下降。基于此,本文作者提出几点建议:一是制定生猪养殖帮扶型政策应考虑农户异质性问题;二是加强生猪养殖业供给侧改革力度,促进生猪养殖业生产方式转型。
Based on the survey data of 543 hog farmer households in Sichuan Province and based on the endogenous transformation regression model (ESRM), this paper studies the impact of retirement decision-making on the household income level. The results show that: firstly, there is a positive choice bias affecting the household income level, and households with higher income level are more likely to withdraw from the free-range pigs; secondly, the withdrawal of the free-range farmer households from the pig farming can significantly improve the family income level; It is the farmer still undergoing free-range farming and if withdrawn, the income level of his family will decline. Based on this, the author put forward some suggestions: First, the development of pig breeding help-type policy should consider the heterogeneity of farmers; the second is to strengthen the supply side of pig breeding reform efforts to promote the transformation of pig breeding industry.