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持续、巨额的经常账户顺差给中国带来了一系列负面影响。彻底扭转中国经常账户失衡,迫在眉睫。文章基于居民消费能力的视角,对中国经常账户问题进行了理论和实证分析。理论研究结果表明,居民消费能力是影响中国经常账户的主要因素;实证研究结果表明,中国经常账户顺差与居民消费能力、投资率、净国外资产比率和人口抚养比存在长期动态均衡关系,其中居民消费能力是影响经常账户的重要因素且与经常账户余额/GDP呈负相关关系。最后文章提出了相关的对策和建议。
Continuing, the huge current account surplus has brought a series of negative effects in China. It is imminent to completely reverse China’s current account imbalance. Based on the perspective of residents’ spending power, the article analyzes the current account of China theoretically and empirically. The results of theoretical studies show that the spending power of residents is the main factor affecting China’s current account. The empirical study shows that there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between China’s current account surplus and household spending power, investment rate, net foreign assets ratio and population dependency ratio. Among them, residents Spending power is an important factor affecting the current account and negatively correlated with the current account balance / GDP. The last article put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.