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空间市场整合对保障粮食安全具有重要的政策含义。本文利用门限自回归模型和中国粮食市场的价格数据对空间分隔市场的价格传导和市场整合状况进行了研究。分析发现,中国粮食市场的价格均衡调整速度较慢,地理距离是影响价格调整速度和贸易成本的重要因素,市场间的贸易成本空间分隔受到市场、运输、信息和政策等多方面条件的影响,中国粮食市场尚缺乏有效的空间套利活动。为了高效率低成本地实现粮食安全,需要深化体制改革、利用市场机制、降低贸易成本以推动粮食市场整合。
The integration of the space market has important policy implications for ensuring food security. In this paper, we use the threshold autoregressive model and the price data of China’s grain market to study the price transmission and market consolidation in the space-separated market. The analysis shows that price equilibrium adjustment is slow in China’s grain market and geographical distance is an important factor affecting the speed of price adjustment and trade costs. The spatial separation of trade costs in markets is affected by various conditions such as market, transportation, information and policies, China’s food market still lacks effective space arbitrage activities. In order to achieve food security efficiently and at low cost, it is necessary to deepen the reform of the system, make use of the market mechanism and reduce the trade cost so as to promote the integration of the grain market.