论文部分内容阅读
目的为降低中山市登革热暴发风险,建立登革热分级预警应对体系并评价预警效果。方法查阅文献、结合中山市1990-2007年登革热媒介监测、病例监测数据,建立登革热分级预警应对体系;2008-2011年在全市范围实施登革热分级预警;收集1990-2011年中山市登革热暴发数据,通过比较预警体系建立前后登革热暴发规模,评估预警体系。结果在诱蚊诱卵阳性指数、病例和月份3个指标的基础上,建立中山市0～4级登革热预警体系,其对应暴发的可能性分别为几乎无、很小、可能、危险和暴发。2008-2011年,预警体系共发出可能预警信号5次,危险预警信号2次,暴发预警信号1次。2008-2011年仅发生一起登革热暴发疫情,涉及3例患者,罹患率为1.20%(3/250),持续20d。1990-2007年,共发生7起暴发疫情,涉及病例数14～195例(中位数37例),罹患率为0.84%～14.88%(中位数3.81%),持续16～64d(中位数42d)。结论分级预警应对体系建立后,2008-2011年中山市登革热暴发规模与1990-2007年相比显著降低。分级预警应对体系在降低中山市登革热暴发风险中发挥了重要作用。
Objective To reduce the risk of dengue outbreak in Zhongshan City, establish a grading warning system of dengue fever and evaluate the warning effect. Methods Reference literature, combined with Dengjun media surveillance and case monitoring data from 1990 to 2007 in Zhongshan City to establish a Dengue grading early warning response system; Dengue grading early warning in the city from 2008 to 2011; collected from 1990 to 2011 in Zhongshan City, dengue outbreak data, through Compare the scale of dengue outbreak before and after the establishment of the early warning system to evaluate the early warning system. Results Based on the three indices of mosquito-ovulation positive index, case and month, the early-warning system of dengue 0 ~ 4 in Zhongshan was established. The corresponding warnings were almost no, small, probable, dangerous and outbreak. In 2008-2011, the early warning system issued 5 possible warning signals, 2 dangerous warning signals and 1 early warning signal. In 2008-2011, only one outbreak of Dengue Fever occurred, involving 3 patients with an attack rate of 1.20% (3/250) for 20 days. Seven outbreaks between 1990 and 2007 involved 14 to 195 cases (median 37) with an attack rate of 0.84% to 14.88% (median 3.81%) for 16 to 64 days (median Number 42d). Conclusion The scale of Dengue outbreak in Zhongshan City after 2008 was significantly lower than that of 1990-2007 after establishment of the classification early warning response system. Hierarchical early warning response system has played an important role in reducing the risk of dengue outbreak in Zhongshan City.