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研究目标:面对“因势利导”与“适度赶超”两种看似相悖的技术选择战略,发展中经济体应该如何抉择。研究方法:利用1990~2014年的中国省级宏观数据与典型行业数据,通过多种实证工具分析了不同人力资本条件下技术选择战略对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:20世纪90年代以来,赶超式的技术选择战略总体上抑制了中国全要素生产率的增长。而人力资本则构筑了适宜采用“因势利导”还是“适度赶超”战略的分水岭。在人力资本积累不足的情况下,技术选择必须严格遵循要素禀赋的演进趋势;而在人力资本积累充分的情况下,适度偏离要素禀赋的技术战略将是更具效率的政策选择。研究创新:以人力资本为线索为两种技术选择战略搭建了一条能够相互实现逻辑自洽的理论框架。研究价值:为中国各地区选择适宜的技术进步路径提供了参考依据。
Research objectives: Faced with two seemingly incompatible technological choice strategies such as “leading the way” and “modest catching up”, how should developing economies choose? Research Methods: Based on Chinese provincial-level macro data and typical industry data from 1990 to 2014, this paper analyzes the impact of technology selection strategies on total factor productivity under various human capital conditions through a variety of empirical tools. The study finds that since the 1990s, the catch-up technology selection strategy has generally inhibited the growth of total factor productivity in China. Human capital, on the other hand, has built a watershed that is suitable for adopting the strategy of “making the best use” or “modest catching up”. In the case of insufficient human capital accumulation, the choice of technology must strictly follow the evolution of factor endowments; and in the case of sufficient human capital accumulation, a technology strategy that is moderately deviating from factor endowments will be a more efficient policy choice. Research and Innovation: Using human resources as a clue, we set up a theoretical framework that enables each other to achieve self-consistent logic. Research Value: It provides a reference for selecting suitable technological progress routes in various regions of China.