针对某尾翼破甲弹在尾翼张开过程中的弹一引系统的冲击振动特性进行了多项模拟试验，并把试验测得的尾翼张开过程的碰撞力作为载荷作用在弹体上，借助于有限元法和模态分析技术对弹体结构进行了动力分析，建立了尾翼张开过程中引信早炸的概率模型，在计算机上进行了引信早炸概率的模拟，对该破甲弹的早炸事故分析有一定的参考价值。 Aiming at the shock and vibration characteristics of a tail-shell missile in the course of the tail-opening of a tail-fin stabilizer, a number of simulation tests were carried out and the collision force of the tail-opening test measured by the test was applied to the body as a load. Based on the finite element method and modal analysis technique, the dynamic analysis of projectile structure was carried out. The probability model of early-stage fuze detonation was established, and the probability of fuze early-frying was simulated on the computer. Early fried accident analysis has some reference value.