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为强化黄河源区水资源管理及生态环境规划等问题,采用HBV模型、新安江模型对其流量过程进行模拟。HBV模型中共有15个参数,参数率定采用蒙特卡罗法(MC)和遗传算法(GA),发现敏感参数有5个,且HBV模型中应用遗传算法计算得到的结果与实测过程更加接近。新安江模型共有17个参数,参数率定采用了蒙特卡罗法(MC)、拉丁超立方分层抽样(LHS)、次数多的蒙特卡罗法,发现敏感参数共有10个,大多数时候拉丁超立方方法率定结果与实测值更接近。两个模型应用结果对比发现,HBV模型对枯季的模拟流量偏低,新安江模型对枯水年的模拟比HBV模型好,且对枯水年的模拟均处于可接受范围之内。
In order to strengthen the management of water resources and ecological environment in the Yellow River source area, the HBV model and the Xin’anjiang model were used to simulate the flow process. There are 15 parameters in the HBV model, and the parameters are calibrated using Monte Carlo method and genetic algorithm (GA). Five parameters are found in the HBV model. The results of genetic algorithm in HBV model are closer to the experimental ones. There are 17 parameters in Xin’anjiang model. The Monte Carlo method with Monte Carlo method (MC), Latin Hypercube Stratified Sampling (LHS) and many times of Monte Carlo method is used to determine the parameters. There are 10 sensitive parameters, most of which are Latin The result of hypercube method is closer to the measured value. The comparison between the two models shows that the simulated flow rate of HBV model is relatively low for the dry season, and the simulation of the Xin’anjiang model is better than that of the HBV model for the dry years, and the simulation of the dry years is within the acceptable range.