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我国电力市场化改革首先是在发电侧引入竞争机制,发电商作为独立的经济实体,通过竞价上网参与市场竞争,面临关键问题是如何采用最优竞价策略以获得最大的收益。根据在电力市场中发电机组状况的差异,应用演化博弈理论中的多群体复制动态博弈模型对发电商有差别的、有限理性的竞价策略进行模拟,分析了发电商在竞价过程中竞价策略的动态演化过程及其演化稳定策略。通过实际算例对模型进行了定量的评价。结果不仅表明多群体复制动态博弈模型能较充分反映出发电商报价的动态过程,同时还说明了只有合理的竞价规则才能促进发电侧电力市场的健康发展。
The reform of electricity market in China firstly introduces a competition mechanism on the power generation side. As an independent economic entity, the electricity supplier participates in the market competition through bidding on the Internet. The key issue is how to adopt the optimal bidding strategy to get the maximum return. According to the difference of gensets in power market, this paper applies the multi-group replica dynamic game model in evolutionary game theory to simulate bidding strategies with difference and limited rationality, and analyzes the dynamics of bidding strategies Evolutionary process and its evolution strategy. Through a practical example, the model is quantitatively evaluated. The results not only show that the multi-group replication dynamic game model can more fully reflect the dynamic process of bidding of generators, but also shows that only reasonable bidding rules can promote the healthy development of power generation market.