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R/S分析(重标度极差分析)是一种描述和刻画非线性时间序列的有效方法。针对滑坡地表位移监测时序确定性与随机性共存的复杂非线性特征,对三峡库区的一个实例滑坡的长时期位移时序进行了R/S分析。分别计算了滑坡累积位移时序和增量位移时序的Hurst指数,指出增量位移时序是更有效的分形结构,其Hurst指数能定量刻画滑坡的变形趋势;分析了滑坡增量位移时序的非周期循环长度,发现滑坡前缘与中后部的增量位移时序Hurst指数和非周期循环长度存在显著差别,并从滑坡变形诱发机制上解释了这一差异产生的内在原因;最后基于滑坡变形演化的力学机理,提出了一个利用增量位移时序Hurst指数判断滑坡加速变形阶段的概念模型:为提高和完善滑坡失稳时间预测预报理论,提供了一个有意义的新思路和新方法。
R / S analysis (Rescale Gradient Analysis) is an effective way to describe and characterize non-linear time series. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics that the timing determinacy and randomness of landslide displacement monitoring coexist, R / S analysis is performed on the long-term displacement sequence of an example landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Hurst index of cumulative displacement sequence and incremental displacement sequence of landslide are calculated respectively. It is pointed out that incremental displacement sequence is a more efficient fractal structure, Hurst exponent of it can quantitatively describe the deformation trend of landslide, and the aperiodic cycle of landslide incremental displacement sequence Length and found that there is a significant difference between the Hurst index and the non-cyclic length of the incremental displacement sequence of landslide front and mid-back. The internal causes of this difference are explained from the mechanism of landslide deformation induction. Finally, based on the mechanics of landslide deformation evolution Mechanism, a conceptual model for determining the stage of landslide acceleration deformation using the Hurst index of incremental displacement sequence is proposed. This provides a meaningful new idea and method for improving and perfecting the theory of landslide time forecasting and forecasting.