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国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格的影响存在阈值协整效应。本文通过平滑机制转移模型实证检验了国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格影响的阈值效应,得出主要结论:一是我国农产品价格形成机制是国际农产品价格与我国农产品价格呈现阈值协整关系的重要原因;二是国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格的影响始终为正向,但正向影响的强弱依赖于阈值效应的变化,且我国农产品价格受此影响体现了暴涨缓跌的特征;三是农产品需求、农产品生产成本和国际原油价格对我国农产品价格的影响也随阈值变量不断变化。当国际农产品价格过低时,农产品需求、农产品生产成本和国际原油价格的正向影响将被显著弱化。本文在以上结论基础上进一步探讨了稳定农产品价格的问题。
The impact of international agricultural prices on the prices of agricultural products in China has a threshold of cointegration effects. This paper empirically tests the threshold effect of the international agricultural prices on the prices of agricultural products in our country through the mechanism of the transfer of the smooth mechanism. The main conclusions are drawn as follows: First, the price formation mechanism of the agricultural products in our country is the important reason for the cointegration relationship between the international agricultural prices and the agricultural prices in our country. Second, the impact of international agricultural prices on China’s agricultural prices has always been positive, but the positive impact depends on the strength of the changes in the threshold effect, and the impact of China’s agricultural prices reflects the characteristics of soaring; Second, demand for agricultural products, The impact of agricultural production costs and international crude oil prices on the prices of agricultural products in China is also changing with the threshold variables. When international agricultural prices are too low, the positive impact of agricultural demand, agricultural production costs and international crude oil prices will be significantly weakened. Based on the above conclusions, this article further explores the issue of stabilizing the prices of agricultural products.