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目的 :预测未来天津市各层次、各专业卫生人力资源需求状况为教育机构招生决策提供科学依据。方法 :运用组合预测、多元回归、灰色系统等理论与方法 ,构造模型体系。结果 :总量上供大于求 ,不同层次、不同专业供求不平衡。结论 :临床医学、护理、生物医学工程等本科层次应扩大招生。
Objectives: To predict the future status of health human resources at all levels and in various specialties in Tianjin, and provide scientific basis for the decision-making of educational institution recruitment. Methods: Construct a model system by using the theory and methods of combination forecasting, multiple regression, grey system and so on. Result: Supply exceeds demand in the total amount, and supply and demand are unbalanced at different levels and in different professions. Conclusion: Enrollment should be expanded at the undergraduate level of clinical medicine, nursing, and biomedical engineering.