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美国新一轮总统大选终于尘埃落定,奥巴马如愿以偿连任美国总统,政策的不确定性风险得以消除。但与此同时,美国“财政悬崖”的脚步也日益临近,欧债危机疑云再起。如此形势之下,黄金的新一轮春天是否即将来临?量化宽松:中期上涨基础依旧美国总统大选中奥巴马的胜出推动了美元、美债、黄金等在短期内走强(见图1)。这主要是基于市场对通胀回升的预期和对美国经济前景的乐观预期。从形势发展来看,一方面,面对全球宽松浪潮,市场对通胀的忧虑也日渐升温,未来全球经济发生滞胀的可能性正在增加,因而有利于拉动黄金的保值需求;另一方面,奥巴马的胜选在很大程度上意味着宽松的货币政策将会延续下去,这对黄金价格无疑也是
The final round of the U.S. presidential election has finally come to a close. Obama’s wish to serve as U.S. president is eliminated. The uncertainty of the policy is eliminated. At the same time, however, the pace of the “fiscal cliff” in the United States is also approaching. The debt crisis in Europe is under suspense. Under such circumstances, a new round of gold is coming? Quantitative easing: the medium-term basis for the rise is still winning the Obama presidential election in the United States promoted the dollar, the United States bonds, gold and other short-term strength (see Figure 1). This is mainly based on the market’s expectation of a rebound in inflation and optimistic expectations of the U.S. economy. From the perspective of the development of the situation, on the one hand, in the face of the global easing wave, market concerns about inflation are also on the rise. In the future, the possibility of stagflation in the global economy is increasing, which is conducive to boosting the demand for gold’s hedging. On the other hand, Winning means to a large extent loose monetary policy will continue, which is undoubtedly the price of gold is