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水文过程变异点的识别与分析是近十几年来比较热点的问题之一,为准确识别黑河流域水文过程变异点,本文采用黑河流域莺落峡水文站1947年-2006年年径流序列资料,运用差积曲线-秩检验联合法来识别黑河流域水文过程变异点,并结合Brown-Forsythe法、有序聚类法、滑动F检验法来验证变异点的准确性,应用SPSS统计软件分析水文变异点前后数据变化特征。结果表明:黑河流域莺落峡水文站水文过程变异点为1959年和1979年,水文序列变化分为三个阶段,各阶段均值分别相差1.25亿m3、1.89亿m3。标准差值、变差系数值和偏差系数值变化显著,河流水文序列的趋势性和突变性特征反映了自然条件和人类活动对河流天然状态的水文序列产生了显著的影响。
To identify and analyze the variation points of hydrological processes is one of the hot issues in recent ten years. In order to accurately identify the variation of hydrological processes in the Heihe River basin, this paper uses the annual runoff series data of Yingluoxia Hydrological Station from 1947 to 2006 in Heihe River Basin. Difference plot-rank test was used to identify the variation of hydrological process in Heihe River Basin. The accuracy of the variation point was tested by Brown-Forsythe method, ordered clustering method and sliding F-test. SPSS statistical software was used to analyze the hydrological variation point Before and after the data change characteristics. The results show that the variation of hydrological process at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station in Heihe River Basin was 1959 and 1979, and the hydrological sequence change was divided into three stages, with the average of each stage varying by 125 million m3 and 198 million m3 respectively. The variation of standard deviation, coefficient of variation and coefficient of variation have significant changes. The trend and mutation characteristics of river hydrological sequence reflect that natural conditions and human activities have a significant impact on the hydrological sequence of river natural state.