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本文使用存货周期理论解释2008年9月份以来的宏观经济急剧下滑,认为当前工业生产增速急剧下降伴随了剧烈的存货调整因素。理论和经验研究证明,企业存货水平具有明显的“顺周期”特征,因此在经济景气转换阶段,企业存货水平的波动会明显加大,成为加剧短期宏观经济波动的重要因素。在2008年9月以来的本轮存货调整中,除需求变化引发的存货调整冲击外,原材料价格的暴涨暴跌也从供给面增大了本轮存货调整的冲击,对上游重工业生产的影响也更为显著。
In this paper, we use the inventory cycle theory to explain the sharp decline in macro economy since September 2008, considering that the current sharp decline in industrial production is accompanied by drastic inventory adjustment. Theoretical and empirical studies show that the inventory level of enterprises has obvious “Cyclicality” characteristics. Therefore, during the economic transition, the volatility of the inventory level of enterprises will be significantly increased, becoming an important factor that aggravates the short-term macroeconomic fluctuations. In the current inventory adjustment since September 2008, in addition to the inventory adjustment shock caused by the change in demand, the surge in raw material prices also increased the impact of the current stock adjustment from the supply side and also had more impact on the upstream heavy industry production For the obvious.