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作为商业周期理论的重要组成部分,NAIRU是一个有价值的分析概念,它简化了宏观经济政策的讨论和选择。在回顾国外测量模型的基础上,本文基于可变参数的假设,构建包含NAIRU变动过程和菲利普斯曲线关系的状态空间模型,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算出1992-2004年随时间变动的NAIRU曲线。结果显示,自1992年以来,中国具有不断升高的NAIRU,并在2002年达到最大值。其后,NAIRU一直在4.8%￣5.6%的范围内波动,相对稳定。通过回顾近十年来劳动力市场的主要变化,本文从几个方面对NAIRU的上升做出了解释,结构转变的加快和青年就业问题的突出为其主要原因。因此,加强失业者培训体系建设,完善劳动力中介服务体系,对青年就业予以重点关注应成为促进就业的政策取向。
As an important part of the business cycle theory, NAIRU is a valuable analytical concept that simplifies the discussion and choice of macroeconomic policy. Based on the review of foreign measurement models, this paper constructs a state space model based on the assumption of variable parameters and the relationship between NAIRU and Phillips curve. The Kalman filter method is used to estimate the NAIRU curve from 1992 to 2004. The results show that China has had a rising NAIRU since 1992 and reached its maximum in 2002. Since then, NAIRU has been fluctuating within the range of 4.8% ~ 5.6%, relatively stable. By reviewing the major changes in the labor market in the past decade, this article explains the rise of NAIRU in several ways. The main reason for this is the structural change and the prominence of youth employment. Therefore, strengthening the training system for the unemployed, improving the labor service system, and focusing on youth employment should become the policy orientation to promote employment.