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鉴于半干旱半湿润地区的流域水文模拟及预报一直是水文模型领域研究的重点和难点问题,基于山西省张峰水库1988~2007年间18场洪水资料,前12场用于率定模型参数,后6场用于检验模型,采用DREAM方法分析其双超模型参数的不确定性,并在此基础上分析由参数不确定性导致的模型输出的不确定性。结果表明,10个参数的后验分布峰值不明显,说明参数的不确定性较大;4个参数的后验分布为具有明显峰值的不规则分布,7个参数的后验分布呈现偏态分布,其峰值也比较明显,说明该参数的不确定性较小。研究结果可为双超模型不确定性分析提供一定的理论基础。
In view of the fact that the hydrological simulation and forecast in the semi-arid and semi-humid areas have been the key and difficult issues in the hydrological model field, based on the data of 18 floods in 1988 and 2007 in Zhangfeng Reservoir of Shanxi Province, the first 12 fields were used to determine the model parameters and the later Six fields were used to test the model, and the uncertainty of the parameters of the double supermodels was analyzed by DREAM method. Based on this, the uncertainty of the model output caused by the parameter uncertainty was analyzed. The results show that the posterior distribution peak value of the 10 parameters is not obvious, which means the parameter uncertainty is relatively large. The posterior distribution of 4 parameters is an irregular distribution with obvious peak, and the posterior distribution of 7 parameters shows a skewed distribution , The peak is also more obvious, indicating that the uncertainty of this parameter is smaller. The results can provide some theoretical basis for the analysis of uncertainty of double supermodels.