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针对数以万计的空间碎片,进行快速、精确的轨道确定与预报,以提供可靠的空间碰撞预警是当前空间态势感知的一个重要研究方向。半解析卫星/空间碎片轨道积分,可以克服轨道积分中数值法耗时、解析法低精度的不足。讨论了已初步研发成功的利用多尺度摄动原理的半解析轨道积分器及其在空间碎片轨道预报中的精度性能,并以精密数值积分结果作为“真轨道”评估半解析轨道积分器的精度。大量数据处理结果表明:面质比0.01、轨道高度300 km的碎片,预报1天,耗时不足60 ms,精度2 km左右,且随高度增加,预报精度更高,当高度超过1 000 km时,1天的预报精度仅为50 m左右,满足许多精密空间应用的要求。
For the tens of thousands of space debris, rapid and accurate orbit determination and prediction to provide reliable space collision warning is an important research direction of the current space situational awareness. The semi-analytical orbit / space debris orbit integral can overcome the time-consuming numerical method in orbit integral and the low-precision analytical method. The semi-analytical orbital integrator using the principle of multi-scale perturbation and its accuracy performance in space debris orbit prediction are discussed. The precision numerical integration is used as the “true orbit” to evaluate the semi-analytical orbit integrator The accuracy. A large number of data processing results show that the prediction accuracy is higher when the surface mass ratio is 0.01 and the orbital height is 300 km, the forecasting time is less than 60 ms and the accuracy is about 2 km. With the increase of the height, the prediction accuracy is higher. When the height exceeds 1 000 km The forecast accuracy of one day is only about 50 m, which meets the requirements of many precision space applications.