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探究气候变化背景下作物水热资源利用效率变化情况是挖掘粮食高产潜力、实现农业可持续发展的基础,对于优化粮食作物布局以及应对未来气候变化趋势具有重要意义。本文基于1993-2013年吉林省24个气象站点的逐日气象数据和农业统计数据,按照作物积温需求划分出水稻、玉米和大豆的气候种植界限,对因气候变暖而增加的种植区域(敏感区)内水、热资源有效利用情况进行评估。结果表明:①1993-2013年吉林省积温带明显东扩,水稻和玉米的气候种植界限东扩到敦化-靖宇-临江一线,大豆的气候种植界限东扩到吉林省最东部的长白县;②三种作物敏感区内热量资源利用效率低于非敏感区,但水资源利用效率均高于非敏感区。1993-2013年作物敏感区内水热资源利用效率均呈现出增长趋势,年均增长率显著高于非敏感区;③水稻和玉米敏感区内水热资源产出效率均高于非敏感区,但大豆敏感区内产出效率低于非敏感区。结论:气候变暖对研究区内水热资源效率的提高表现出明显的正效应。从水、热资源优化利用的角度,研究区可适当向东扩展玉米和水稻的种植面积,但要加强农田灌溉系统和灌溉技术,降低水稻的水资源约束情况。同时避免研究区最东部安图、长白等地粮豆的盲目扩种,减少热量资源的约束风险。
Studying the change of crop water and heat resource utilization efficiency under the background of climate change is the basis of excavating the potential of high yield of grain and realizing the sustainable development of agriculture. It is of great significance to optimize the layout of food crops and to cope with the trend of future climate change. Based on the daily meteorological data and agricultural statistics of 24 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1993 to 2013, the climatic planting boundaries of rice, maize and soybean are divided according to the demand of crop accumulated temperature. The planting areas (sensitive areas ) Within the water, the effective utilization of thermal resources to assess. The results showed that: (1) The temperature-accumulated temperate zone in Jilin Province expanded significantly from 1993 to 2013, and the climatic planting boundaries of rice and corn expanded eastward to the first line of Dunhua, Jingyu and Linjiang. The boundary of soybean cultivation extended eastward to Changbai County, the easternmost part of Jilin Province. The utilization efficiency of heat resources in the sensitive areas of three crops was lower than that in non-sensitive areas, but the water use efficiency was higher than that in non-sensitive areas. From 1993 to 2013, the utilization efficiency of water and heat resources in crop-sensitive areas all showed an increasing trend with an average annual growth rate significantly higher than that in non-sensitive areas; ③ The output efficiency of hydrothermal resources in rice and maize sensitive areas was higher than that in non-sensitive areas, However, the yield efficiency in soybean sensitive areas was lower than that in non-sensitive areas. Conclusion: Climate warming shows a significant positive effect on the efficiency of hydrothermal resources in the study area. From the perspective of optimizing the utilization of water and heat resources, the study area may expand the planting area of maize and rice eastward appropriately. However, it is necessary to strengthen the farmland irrigation system and irrigation technology and reduce the water resources constraint of rice. At the same time, blind expansion of grain beans in Antu, Changbai and other places in the eastern part of the study area should be avoided to reduce the risk of heat resource restriction.