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望霞危岩历史上多次发生山体崩滑变形破坏,最近两次大的危岩变形破坏都发生在雨季过后的10月份,为此从危岩体区域地质背景、降雨、岩体结构等几个方面论述了其产生崩塌灾害的原因,同时根据危岩体各段的变形特征及监测资料进行了分析。认为望霞危岩体的产生和发展,主要受控于特殊的地质构造环境和临空的高陡边坡条件,在持续性降雨的诱发下使危岩体多次失稳。结合自2010年10月21日灾变后的监测数据,认为该危岩体总体变形趋势持续增大,还可能再次发生破坏,为此采用指数平滑法预测模型,以危岩的变形值和变形速率为判据,对危岩再次失稳时间进行了动态跟踪预报,根据危岩的实际情况,对部分监测点位移进行了试验性及验证性的建模和预测,取得了较高的预测精度。
In the history of Wangxia Danyan, landslides and landslides occurred many times in the history. The deformation and failure of the two most dangerous rocks occurred in October after the rainy season. Therefore, from the geological background, rainfall and rock mass structure of dangerous rock mass On the one hand, the causes of the collapsing disaster are discussed. At the same time, the deformation characteristics and monitoring data of each section of the dangerous rock mass are analyzed. It is considered that the occurrence and development of Wangxia dangerous rock mass are mainly controlled by the special geotectonic environment and the conditions of the high steep slope of the airspace, which cause the rock mass to fail many times under the condition of continuous rainfall. Combined with the monitoring data after the catastrophe on October 21, 2010, the overall deformation trend of the rock mass is expected to continue to increase and damage may occur again. For this reason, an exponential smoothing model is used to predict the deformation and the deformation rate As the criterion, the dynamic instability of the dangerous rock was tracked again. According to the actual situation of the dangerous rock, some displacement and displacement of the monitoring point were modeled and predicted experimentally, and a high prediction accuracy was obtained.