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本文在G-R(logN=α—M)关系的基础上,探讨用b值横截距法预报地震序列强余震的震级。选用我国1966—1986年21年内有完整资料的58个Ms≥5.0地震序列,用b值横截距法进行预报检验。这些地震序列的位置分布较广,遍及全国各大区,而且要求每个地震序列满足震级M≥Mo(起始震级)的地震个数不少于50个。统计结果表明,对预报序列中强余震的吻合率为93％以上。另外,我们还用b值横截距法对序列的晚期强余震预测及在主震后尽可能短的时间内预测强余震进行了探索,表明它是可能的。
Based on the relationship of G-R (logN = α-M), this paper studies the prediction of the magnitude of strong aftershocks of seismic series by the b-value transverse intercept method. Fifty-eight Ms≥5.0 earthquakes with complete data in our country from 1966 to 1986 are selected, and the b value cross-section method is used to forecast the earthquake. The locations of these earthquakes are widely distributed throughout major areas of the country and require that no less than 50 earthquakes satisfy the magnitude M≥Mo (initial magnitude) for each earthquake sequence. The statistical results show that the coincidence rate of strong aftershocks in the forecast sequence is over 93%. In addition, we also used the b-value intercept method to predict strong aftershocks of the series and predict strong aftershocks in the shortest possible time after the main shock, indicating that it is possible.