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如今,加剧的不确定性使供应链节点企业内外部环境更为复杂,供应链上的节点企业必须选择合适的供应模式,以应对上游供应中断的发生,以及下游市场需求的干扰。本文首先以中断概率为切入点,提出适合研究讨论的问题描述及其基本假设条件;然后,利用系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD),针对问题描述建立基准模型,通过仿真试验模拟不同参数环境下运行状况,对所构建诸模型进行研究,比较分析各方案;最后,加入随机需求扰动因素,建立需求扰动下的系统动力学模型,测试供应模式的抗干扰能力,提出不同环境下选择不同供应模式的理论依据。
Nowadays, the aggravating uncertainty makes the internal and external environment of supply chain nodes more complicated. Nodal enterprises in the supply chain must choose the appropriate supply mode to cope with the interruption of upstream supply and the demand of downstream market. In this paper, the disruption probability is taken as the starting point, and the problem description and its basic assumptions suitable for the research and discussion are put forward. Then, the system dynamics (System Dynamics, SD) is used to establish the benchmark model for the problem description and simulate the simulation under different parameters And the operating conditions of the construction of the model to study and compare the various programs; Finally, adding the disturbance factors of random demand, the establishment of system dynamics under the demand disturbance model to test the anti-interference ability of supply mode, put forward different options under different supply modes The theoretical basis.