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为了解释中国企业并购潮现象,本文创新性地将并购潮波动信息分解为若干个信号波,并试图利用股市波动信息来解释中国并购潮形成的影响因素。其具体方法是,基于中国证券市场数据和并购活动数据,运用EMD技术将并购活动时间序列和上证指数时间序列分解成为多尺度时间序列:趋势项、低频项和高频项3个分量,分别对相应的分量进行Pearson相关性检验发现,并购时间序列的趋势项高度相关、低频项中度相关,而高频项完全不相关。由于股市指数序列承载了足够的宏观经济、政府政策和投资者行为信息,从而可以通过分析股市波动的因素间接地讨论中国企业并购潮的形成原因。研究结果表明,中国宏观经济持续增长是中国并购潮长期波动的主因,而产业结构调整、政府政策和资本市场短期非理性投资行为等则是中国并购潮局部波动的重要因素。
In order to explain the phenomenon of mergers and acquisitions (M & A) tide in Chinese enterprises, this paper creatively decomposes the fluctuation information of M & A into several signal waves and tries to use the stock market fluctuation information to explain the influencing factors of the formation of M & A in China. The specific method is to decompose time series of M & A activity and SSE into multi-scale time series based on data of China’s securities market and M & A activity data using EMD technique: trend, low frequency and high frequency, respectively The Pearson correlation test of the corresponding components found that the trend of M & A time series is highly correlated, while the low frequency terms are moderately correlated, whereas the high frequency terms are completely irrelevant. Because the stock market index sequence carries enough macroeconomic, government policies and investor behavior information, we can indirectly discuss the reasons for the M & A tide of Chinese enterprises by analyzing the factors of the stock market volatility. The results show that China’s sustained macroeconomic growth is the main reason for the long-term fluctuations in the M & A in China. However, the adjustment of industrial structure, government policies and short-term irrational investment in capital markets are all important factors in the local fluctuations in M & A in China.