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本文基于国内A股市场新股发行时投资者网上中签率和网下配售比率,探讨其信息含量及其对股票上市后市场表现的预测能力.研究发现,投资者网上中签率和网下配售比率均与股票上市首日收益率、换手率和持有3个月收益显著负相关,但网下配售比率与股票上市首日、持有3个月收益的相关性更强,而投资者网上中签率与上市首日的换手率更紧密.相对于主板上市股票,投资者的网上中签率和网下配售比率对中小企业板和创业板股票上市首日收益和持有3个月收益有更好的解释能力.研究结果对新股发行定价和投资者在二级市场的买卖决策具有参考价值.
Based on the online success rate and offline placement ratio of investors in the domestic A-share market, the paper explores its information content and its ability to predict the market performance after the listing of the stocks.The study found that both investors’ online success rate and offline placement rate It was significantly negatively correlated with the first-day return on the stock market, the turnover rate and the 3-month earnings held, but the offline placement ratio was more relevant to the 3-month return on the first day of stock listing while the investors were online Rate and exchange rate on the first day of listing more closely.Compared to the main board listed stocks, investors online success rate and net placement rate on the SME board and GEM shares listed on the first-day earnings and hold 3 months earnings more Good explanatory ability.The research results have reference value for IPO pricing and investors’ decision-making in the secondary market.