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到1986年11月底止,在西北太平洋和我国近海生成的台风有26个,其数量基本保持了历年该地区的平均数。在我国沿海近岸,受台风影响,产生不同程度风暴潮的有10个左右,与往年相比,1986年的风暴潮灾较为严重。其中典型的有8609及8616号台风风暴潮灾。回顾1986年的台风过程其特点可归结为四多一少:南海台风多,异常路径多,两广登陆的多,远海转向的多,影响北方沿海的少。 总结1986年的风暴潮预报,分析该年的风暴增水特点,不仅能检验我们的预报效果,同时对异常台风路径造成的风暴潮灾从预报的角度也提出一些粗浅的看法,现将几次典型的风暴潮预报过程总结如下。
As of the end of November 1986, there were 26 typhoons that formed in the western North Pacific and off-shore off China, maintaining the average number of typhoons in the region over the years. In coastal areas of our country, affected by the typhoon, there are about 10 storm surges of different levels. Compared with previous years, the storm surge in 1986 was more serious. Among them are the Typhoon Storm Nos. 8609 and 8616. Reviewing the characteristics of the 1986 typhoon process can be attributed to more than four minorities: there are many typhoons in the South China Sea, many anomalous routes, many landings in Guangdong and Guangxi, and many far-sea diversions that affect less northern coasts. Summarizing the storm surge forecast in 1986 and analyzing the characteristics of storm surge in that year, we can not only test our prediction results, but also provide some superficial opinions on the storm surge caused by the abnormal typhoon track from the perspective of forecasting. The typical storm surge forecast process is summarized as follows.