过去十年,全球性不均衡问题逐渐成为各国宏观经济政策的中心议题。本文重点分析了当前中国的外部失衡问题,研究了2008年后促使中国经常账户盈余下降的影响因素,预测了中国外部顺差的走向。本文认为,未来几年中国的经常账户盈余将保持适度。外部失衡不能反映当今中国国际收支的主要特征。随着中国国内经济越来越依赖投资的拉动,内部失衡问题将愈发明显。 Over the past decade, the global imbalance has gradually become the central issue of the macroeconomic policies of all countries. This article focuses on the current external imbalances in China, examines the factors that have contributed to the decline in current account surpluses in China after 2008, and forecasts the trend of China’s external surplus. This paper argues that China’s current account surplus will remain modest in the next few years. External imbalances can not reflect the main features of China’s current balance of payments. As China’s domestic economy relies more and more on investment, internal imbalances will become even more pronounced.