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在经济学领域,稳定政策一直充满争议。面对“政策制定者需要对经济周期作出反应吗”这样的关键问题,经济学家们的回答莫衷一是。一部分人认为,宏观经济是内在不稳定的,在各种需求冲击和供给冲击之下,政策调控能够起到“稳定器”的重要作用。正如前美联储主席威廉·麦克切尼·马丁所言:“政策制定者的工作是在宴会正进行时拿走盛满酒的酒杯。”而另有一部分人则认为,宏观经济本来就是稳定的,政策调控不仅不能起到稳定作用,反而可能成为新的波动性来源,正如弗里德曼所言:“我们需要的不是把经济之车的方向盘转向不可预期之路上的高超政策司机,而是需要作为稳定物坐在后座上的政策乘客。”
In the realm of economics, stability policy has always been controversial. In the face of the key question of “what policymakers need to respond to the business cycle,” economists have mixed answers. Some people think that the macroeconomy is inherently unstable. Under the impact of various demands and supply, policy control can play an important role as a “stabilizer.” As former Federal Reserve Chairman William McCartney Martin put it: “The job of policymakers is to take the glass of wine full when the party is going.” And while others think the macroeconomy is inherently stable Policy regulation not only fails to stabilize but may become a new source of volatility, as Friedman put it: “What we need is not to shift the steering wheel of the economy car to a superb policy driver on an unpredictable path, But a policy passenger who needs to sit on the back seat as a stabilizer. ”