地震预报最佳方式的探讨是地震社会学研究的重要内容。本文通过临震预报可靠性评估和预报益损情况的估计,采用风险型—期望值准则方法进行决策,认为在目前预报水平和能力情况下,在江苏这样一个人口稠密、经济发达的省区进行五级左右地震的临震预报,以“各级领导内部掌握”的方式为最佳,并对预报区重点工程和危险设施进行适当防护则能收到较好的社会经济效益。同时还对临震预报程序提出了一些建议。 The study of the best method of earthquake prediction is an important part of the sociology of earthquake research. Based on the assessment of the reliability of the earthquake prediction and the prediction of the damage situation, this paper adopts the risk-expectation criterion method to make the decision. In the current situation of forecasting level and capability, this paper proposes that in a densely populated and economically developed province such as Jiangsu Pro-earthquake prediction at the earthquakes of about magnitude is best taken as “the internal control by leaders at all levels”, and proper protection of key projects and dangerous facilities in the forecast area can receive good social and economic benefits. At the same time, some suggestions are put forward on the process of the quake prediction.