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为了掌握民航不安全事件的发展状况,并据此制定民航企事业单位的安全绩效考核指标,在民航不安全事件灰色预测的基础上引入离散灰色预测和弱化缓冲算子理论,基于中国民航2004—2013年不安全事件数据建立了弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型。通过中国民航2014—2015年不安全事件数据对模型进行检验,结果表明,弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型的预测精度明显高于灰色预测(GM(1,1))模型和离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型,其中2阶平均弱化缓冲算子修正的离散灰色预测(DGM(1,1))模型预测精度最高,采用该模型对2016—2020年我国民航不安全事件数进行了预测,预测结果为14 095、14 910、15 773、16 685、17 650。
In order to grasp the development of civil aviation unsafe events and to formulate the safety performance evaluation index of civil aviation enterprises and institutions, based on the gray prediction of civil aviation unsafe incidents, the theory of discrete gray prediction and weakening buffer operator is introduced. A Discrete Gray Prediction (DGM (1,1)) Model with Weakened Buffer Operator Correction was established for the 2013 unsafe event data. The test results show that the prediction accuracy of discrete gray prediction (DGM (1,1)) model with weak buffer operator correction is significantly higher than that of gray prediction (GM (1, (DGM (1, 1)) model and discrete gray forecast (DGM (1,1)) model with 2-order average weakening buffer operator has the highest prediction accuracy. In 2020, the number of civil aviation unsafe incidents in China is predicted, and the forecast results are 14 095, 14 910, 15 773, 16 685 and 17 650.