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目的探讨北京市2008年1月1日—2009年12月31日大气PM_(10)浓度的时空分布特征及其对人群脑血管病死亡的暴露-反应关系。方法采用克里格插值模型对研究期间北京市大气PM_(10)日均浓度进行估计,采用时间序列的广义相加混合效应模型分析北京市大气PM_(10)浓度对居民脑血管病死亡的暴露-反应关系。结果北京市2008—2009年大气PM_(10)日均浓度为118.6μg/m3,高于GB 3095—1996《环境空气质量标准》二级标准。研究期间北京市大气PM_(10)浓度呈自北向南逐渐升高的空间分布规律。北京市大气PM_(10)浓度每升高10μg/m3对脑血管病死亡的超额危险度为0.47%(95%CI:0.27%~0.66%)。引入多污染模型后大气PM_(10)浓度对脑血管病死亡的超额危险度略有减小,但仍有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论采用克里格插值模型能够较为精确地估计北京大气PM_(10)浓度的空间分布状况;北京市大气PM_(10)浓度升高会增加人群脑血管病死亡的风险。
Objective To investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of PM10 concentration in Beijing from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2009 and its exposure-response relationship to death of cerebrovascular disease in Beijing. Methods Kriging interpolation model was used to estimate the average daily PM_ (10) concentrations in Beijing during the study period. The time-series generalized additive effects model was used to analyze the effects of PM_ (10) concentration on the death of residents with CVD in Beijing. - Response relationship. Results The daily average concentration of PM 10 in Beijing from 2008 to 2009 was 118.6 μg / m 3, which was higher than the second grade of Ambient Air Quality Standard GB 3095-1996. During the study period, the atmospheric PM_ (10) concentration in Beijing was gradually increased from north to south. The excess risk of cerebrovascular disease death was 0.47% (95% CI: 0.27% -0.66%) for every 10 μg / m3 of PM_ (10) in Beijing. However, the excess risk of PM_ (10) in cereals was slightly reduced after the introduction of multi-pollutant model, but there was still a statistically significant difference (P <0.05). Conclusion The Kriging interpolation model can be used to estimate the spatial distribution of atmospheric PM_ (10) concentration in Beijing more accurately. The increase of atmospheric PM_ (10) concentration in Beijing will increase the risk of death from cerebrovascular diseases.