通过使用1999-2012年中国地级市和第六次人口普查的数据,本文就公共部门对私营部门就业间是否存在挤出效应以及潜在机理进行了分析。结果显示:(1)这种就业挤出效应在中国劳动力市场上是真实存在的,全国层面上静态挤出效应介于-0.03~-0.035之间,动态分析则显示这种挤出效应的大小与公共部门和私营部门之间的发展特征以及宏观经济环境密切相连;(2)导致这种就业挤出效应的潜在机理,在于公共部门中劳动者就业弹性相对较低,而私营部门中的就业弹性相对较高,劳动力供给变化时通常是就业弹性较低部门挤出就业弹性较高部门的就业;(3)挤出效应既在一定程度上衡量了市场繁荣时市场发展程度,又在一定程度上反映了经济萧条时社会就业的稳定性,应结合两部门的不同属性和所处的经济环境辩证看待。适度挤出效应的存在对完善市场和稳定社会就业具有益处,我们既要积极加快公共部门就业改革,促进市场化程度深入发展,又要避免过犹不及所可能导致的经济波动使社会就业秩序出现紊乱。 By using data from China’s prefecture-level cities and the sixth census from 1999 to 2012, this article analyzes whether there is a crowding-out effect and potential mechanism between the public sector and private-sector employment. The results show that: (1) The employment crowding-out effect is real in China’s labor market. The static crowding-out effect at the national level ranges from -0.03 to -0.035. The dynamic analysis shows that the crowding-out effect (2) The underlying mechanism that led to this crowding out effect of employment is the relatively low employment elasticity of workers in the public sector, while the employment in the private sector is closely related to the developmental characteristics of the public and private sectors and the macroeconomic environment; The elasticity is relatively high, and the change of labor supply is usually the employment with higher employment flexibility in the sectors with lower employment elasticity. (3) The crowding-out effect not only measures the degree of market development in a prosperous market to a certain extent, but also to a certain extent It reflects the stability of social employment during the economic recession and should be viewed dialectically based on the different attributes of the two departments and the economic environment in which they are located. The existence of a proper squeezing effect has the benefits of improving the market and stabilizing social employment. We must not only actively accelerate the employment reform in the public sector, promote the deepening of marketization, but also avoid any possible destabilization of the social employment order caused by the economic fluctuations that may be caused.