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针对二维产品保证下的索赔数据随季节波动的现象,建立了季节指数模型。首先利用使用率对失效率函数进行调整,然后引入季节指数模型对二维产品保证下的索赔数据进行建模。案例研究表明,对于呈现季节性波动的产品索赔数据,该模型相较传统的非齐次泊松过程和差分自回归移动平均模型,能够达到更高的预测精度。
Aiming at the phenomenon that the claim data under the two-dimensional product guarantee fluctuates with the seasons, a seasonal index model is established. Firstly, the failure rate function is adjusted by the utilization rate, and then the seasonal index model is introduced to model the claim data under the two-dimensional product guarantee. Case studies show that this model can achieve higher prediction accuracy than the traditional non-homogeneous Poisson process and the differential autoregressive moving average model for product claims data showing seasonal fluctuations.