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本文使用全国农村固定观察点农户调查的历史数据,全面分析了1995—2008年农户的粮食种植面积与粮价的相关性,并利用2006—2008年的农户面板数据构建农户种粮面积的供给反应模型,测算当前农户种粮面积的价格弹性。研究发现:从历史变化来看,农户粮食种植面积变化与粮价波动相关,同时不同地区相关程度存在差异;当前农户种粮自价格弹性并不大。因此应该采用多种政策措施提高农户种粮积极性,确保粮食生产的稳步增长。
In this paper, we use the historical data of rural households surveyed in rural fixed observation points to comprehensively analyze the correlation between grain acreage and grain price of farmers in 1995-2008. We use the farmer panel data from 2006 to 2008 to construct the supply response of farmers’ Model, and calculate the price elasticity of the current area of farmers planting grain. The study found that: from the historical point of view, the change of grain planting area of farmers is related to the fluctuation of grain prices, and the correlation degree in different areas is different. At present, the price elasticity of grain self-cultivation is not large. Therefore, we should adopt a variety of policies and measures to improve farmers’ enthusiasm for planting grain and ensure the steady growth of grain production.