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通过COMCOT海啸模型计算南海马尼拉海沟潜在震源区单元板块单位滑动产生的海啸波在区域内传播过程,将计算结果组成相应南海海啸波数据库。采用浮标监测数据与数据库结合通过最小二乘法构建南海海啸预报模式。以假想马尼拉海沟发生8.3级地震海啸为案例,应用预报模式对华南地区进行海啸预测,采用30 min和60 min监测数据分别反演计算,在三个近岸验证点的波高和正问题结果比较误差分别在25%和17%之内,到达时间及相位基本一致,预报的计算时间在2 min以内。
Based on the COMCOT tsunami model, the tsunami waves propagating in the unit plate of potential seismic source area of the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are calculated and the results are combined to form the corresponding South China Sea tsunami wave database. Combining buoy monitoring data with database to construct South China Sea tsunami prediction model by least square method. Taking tsunamis of magnitude 8.3 in Manila Trench as an example, tsunami prediction was made in South China using the prediction model. The data of 30 min and 60 min were used for inversion respectively. The error of wave height and positive result of three nearshore verification points were compared respectively Within 25% and 17%, the arrival time and phase are basically the same, and the forecasting time is within 2 minutes.