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使用Ms≥5.0级的80余个地震序列资料,按文献[1]给出的传统分类方法将序列分为主余震型、强震群型(包括双主震型)及孤立型三类,首次分类型统计了第一次大震M1和最大后续地震M2之间的关系,得出线性关系式M2=a+bM1及三类序列相应的a、b值.将使用上述关系式计算的M2与序列实际发生的M2比较,若取两者之差|△M|≤0.5为标准,内符检验的准确率超过90%.用中小地震序列和历史及现代中、强震资料作外推检验,准确率亦在90%左右.对于大震现场震后趋势判断及最大后续地震的估计具有较高实用价值.为使公式在大震现场工作中便于应用,文中尚给出了以模式识别方法使用M1后一天内资料提取的地震序列综合分类指标,用于早期趋势判断。
Using more than 80 earthquake sequence data of Ms≥5.0, the sequences can be divided into three types: main aftershock type, strong swarm type (including dual main shock type) and isolated type according to the traditional classification method given in [1] , The first sub-type statistics of the first large earthquake M1 and the largest subsequent earthquake M2 between the relationship between the linear relationship M2 = a + bM1 and three types of sequence corresponding a, b value. The M2 calculated using the above relation will be compared with the M2 actually generated by the sequence. If the difference between | △ M | ≦ 0.5 is taken as the standard, the accuracy of the internal symbol test exceeds 90%. With medium and small earthquake sequences and historical and modern, strong seismic data for extrapolation tests, the accuracy rate of about 90%. It is of high practical value for judging the trending after the earthquake and estimating the maximum subsequent earthquake. In order to make the formula convenient to be applied in the work of a large earthquake, the comprehensive classification index of seismic sequences extracted from the data within one day after using M1 by pattern recognition is also given for the early trend judgment.