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本文采用STIRPAT模型,应用岭回归方法,对贵州省2000-2014年的数据碳排放情况的进行实证研究,计量分析人口规模、富裕程度(人均实际GDP)及能源强度对碳排放的影响。经研究表明,人均实际GDP对碳排放具有减量效应,其对碳排放的影响力最大,说明经济增长是影响贵州省碳排放量的主要原因;人口规模、能源强度是对提高贵州省碳排放具有增量效应,是导致贵州省碳排放持续增加的驱动因素,也是贵州省碳排放增长的次要因素。因此,应协同主、次影响因素,找到突破口,采取措施,通过合理手段降低碳排放量。
Using STIRPAT model and ridge regression method, this paper conducts an empirical study on data carbon emissions in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2014, and measures the impact of population size, wealth (per capita real GDP) and energy intensity on carbon emissions. The study shows that the per capita real GDP has a reduction effect on carbon emissions, which has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, indicating that economic growth is the main reason for carbon emissions in Guizhou Province; population size, energy intensity is to improve carbon emissions in Guizhou Province With the incremental effect, it is the driving factor that causes the continuous increase of carbon emissions in Guizhou Province and also the secondary factor of the increase of carbon emissions in Guizhou Province. Therefore, we should collaborate with the main and secondary factors to find a breakthrough and take measures to reduce carbon emissions through reasonable means.