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针对以往空中交通管理系统安全评价的不全面性,提出要从“隐性”和“显性”层面对空中交通管理系统的安全状况进行准确评估。在“隐性”层面以空管系统的人、设备、环境和管理为基本因素,建立空中交通管理“隐性”层面评价指标体系,并在空管安全评价中首次利用了Kaufm ann和Gupta模糊德尔菲法求取指标的隶属度,避免了利用专家打分的模糊性和不准确性,为“隐性”层面准确评估提供了坚实的基础;在“显性”层面提出了集值统计模型,并利用落影函数计算出指标的威胁度。最终结合实例对中国空管系统的安全状况进行了评价。实证分析表明,该方法能较为准确地反应中国空管系统的安全状况,具有较好的参考价值。
In view of the incompleteness of the previous air traffic management system safety evaluation, it is proposed to accurately evaluate the air traffic management system security status from the “hidden” and “dominant” levels. Based on the “people, equipment, environment and management” of air traffic control system at the “hidden” level, the evaluation index system of air traffic management and “hidden” level was established. In the air traffic control safety evaluation, Kaufm ann and Gupta fuzzy Delphi method to get the membership of the index, to avoid the use of expert scoring fuzziness and inaccuracy, provide a solid foundation for accurate assessment of “hidden” level; in the “dominant” At the same time, a set-valued statistical model is proposed and the threat of the indicator is calculated by using the falling shadow function. Finally, the security status of China’s ATC system is evaluated with examples. Empirical analysis shows that this method can reflect the safety status of China’s ATC system more accurately and has a good reference value.