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根据世界贸易组织公布的2015年全球进出口总额排名,中国贸易总额全球排名第一。中国国际贸易的发展对中国经济增长做出了重要贡献,但是关于中国是应该发展互补性贸易还是竞争性贸易的争论,主流的观点是应该遵循比较优势原理发展互补性贸易。文章对中国的贸易发展情况进行了简单回顾,重点研究了当前2015年度中国进出口的贸易结构。运用Spearman秩相关系数检验方法,对海关总署按大类统计的22个类别的出口总额和进口总额的秩相关性进行了假设检验,得出中国与世界其他国家整体的国际贸易结构是竞争性为主的结论。提出:被动的互补性贸易策略不符合中国当前的国情,中国作为一个经济大国,应从长远经济发展的角度,遵循主动的竞争性贸易原则,在国际市场展开全面竞争,实现全面均衡稳定的发展,努力从世界经济大国变为世界经济强国。
According to the World Trade Organization released the 2015 global total import and export rankings, China’s total trade volume ranked first in the world. The development of China’s international trade has made an important contribution to China’s economic growth. However, the mainstream argument that China should develop complementary trade or competitive trade should follow the principle of comparative advantage in developing complementary trade. The article briefly reviews the development of China’s trade and focuses on the current trade structure of China’s import and export in 2015. Using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient test method, this paper tests the rank correlation of the total export volume and the total import volume of 22 categories according to the general statistics of the General Administration of Customs, and finds that the overall international trade structure of China and other countries in the world is competitive The main conclusion. Proposed that the passive complementary trade strategy does not accord with China’s current national conditions. As a big economic power, China should, in the perspective of long-term economic development, abide by the principle of active competitive trade, launch full competition in the international market and achieve comprehensive, balanced and stable development. Efforts will be made to change from a major economic power in the world to a powerful economic power in the world.