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在湖南省一血吸虫病中度流行疫区随机抽取 472名8～ 14岁学龄儿童 ,分别进行问卷调查和常规生物医学诊断检查。随机抽取一半资料用于建立Logistic回归模型 ;另一半资料用于回归检验模型的预测效果。结果表明 ,6项危险指标(接触疫水频度、在读年级、乏力、腹泻 ,是否曾患有血吸虫病和是否已治疗过血吸虫病 )在Logistic回归预测模型中具有显著性意义 ,同时运用Logistic回归模型预测学龄儿童血吸虫病感染流行率的效果较好 (灵敏度为 93 7% ,特异度为 91 9% )。因此 ,Logistic回归模型对于大范围筛选日本血吸虫病高危学龄儿童具有较好的预测功能
A total of 472 school-aged children aged 8-14 years were randomly selected from a moderately endemic area of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province. Questionnaires and conventional biomedical diagnostic tests were performed respectively. Half of the data is randomly selected for establishing a Logistic regression model; the other half of the data for the regression test model predictive effect. The results showed that the six risk indicators (frequency of contact with water, grade, fatigue, diarrhea, schistosomiasis or schistosomiasis treatment) were significant in Logistic regression model, and Logistic regression The model predicts the prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-age children is better (93.7% sensitivity and 91.9% specificity). Therefore, Logistic regression model has good predictive value for screening a large number of schistosomiasis japonica children