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气候变化背景下,冬小麦适宜品种和种植区域的变化将影响流域农业水资源配置。利用IPCC CMIP5三种排放情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)的多模式集成数据,分析2011-2059年黄淮海地区冬小麦适宜品种、种植范围和农业种植模式的可能变化,并以研究区二级子流域为单元,采用VIP模型预测冬小麦种植区域的可能变化对其蒸散量、灌溉需水量和流域农业水资源盈亏的影响。结果显示:冬性和弱冬性品种将可能逐渐取代强冬性品种,冬小麦种植区逐步北移,北部地区的种植面积可能增加,而南部地区的种植面积则可能缩减。研究区北部冬小麦种植面积扩张将可能加剧海河流域农业的用水紧张,三种情景下2050s海河流域的农业用水缺口将增加3.7×10~8～34.0×10~8m~3。未来水分将取代热量成为海河流域北部地区冬小麦种植面积扩张的主要限制因素。南部地区双季稻种植面积可能扩张,流域水分盈余将减少。黄淮海地区冬小麦种植格局需要逐步调整以适应气候变化。
Under the background of climate change, the changes of suitable varieties and planting areas of winter wheat will affect the allocation of agricultural water resources in the basin. Based on the multi-model integrated data of three emission scenarios of IPCC CMIP5 (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), the possible changes of suitable winter wheat varieties, planting areas and agricultural planting patterns in Huang-Huai-Hai region during 2011-2059 were analyzed. The second subbasin in the study area is a unit and the influence of the possible changes of winter wheat planting area on its evapotranspiration, irrigation water requirement and the profit and loss of agricultural water resources in the basin is predicted by VIP model. The results showed that the winter and weak winter varieties will gradually replace the winter wheat varieties, and the winter wheat planting areas may move northward gradually. The planting area may increase in the northern area, while the planting area in the southern area may be reduced. The expansion of winter wheat acreage in the northern part of the study area may aggravate water shortage in agriculture in the Haihe River Basin. In the three scenarios, the agricultural water gap in the 2050s Haihe River Basin will increase by 3.7 × 10 ~ 8 ~ 34.0 × 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. Future water will replace heat as the main limiting factor for winter wheat area expansion in the northern Haihe River Basin. The planting area of double cropping rice in the southern region may expand and the water surplus in the basin will decrease. Huanghuaihai winter wheat planting pattern needs to be gradually adjusted to adapt to climate change.