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土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)在干旱区环境变化及生态监测中具有重要意义。本文选取塔里木盆地南缘典型绿洲于田县,利用TM遥感影像,基于Markov模型预测了于田绿洲未来的发展趋势,得出绿洲将向良性方向发展的结论。通过对Markov模型中不同步长收敛结果的讨论,可以看出间隔10 a1、2 a步长的马尔柯夫过程与间隔两年的马尔柯夫过程有着明显的不同,短时间序列(两年)具有很大的随机特性,说明马尔柯夫模型中时间尺度是一个重要环节。由本文研究可以看出,基于遥感的Markov模型可以分析绿洲的变化趋势,在干旱区绿洲LUCC及其环境动态监测中具有重要的实用意义。
Land use / cover change (LUCC) is of great importance in the environmental change and ecological monitoring of arid areas. This paper selects Yutian County, a typical oasis in the southern margin of Tarim Basin, predicts the future development trend of Yutian Oasis based on Markov model using TM remote sensing images and draws the conclusion that oasis will develop in a benign direction. By discussing the convergence results of different steps in the Markov model, it can be seen that the Markov process with steps of 10 a1 and 2 a is significantly different from the Markov process with a separation of two years. The short time series (two years) It has a large random characteristic, indicating that the time scale in the Markov model is an important link. It can be seen from the research in this paper that the Markov model based on remote sensing can analyze the changing trend of oasis and has important practical significance in monitoring LUCC and its environment in the oasis of arid area.