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西北干旱区是我国国土安全的重要生态屏障,必须妥善处理好西北干旱区绿洲化过程中农业生产和生态风险管理之间的关系。科学认识现代绿洲扩张的驱动力,有助于深刻理解绿洲土地利用变化的机理,为绿洲生态风险管理提供科学参考。本文运用Bio-economic模型,模拟了新疆绿洲核心区和绿洲荒漠过渡带在用水量增加、引进高效节水灌溉技术、强化水资源和土地资源管理三种情景下农户的土地利用行为决策,据此探讨现代绿洲扩张的驱动力。研究发现:正是由于水资源管理不严格,在农户追求利益最大化的利益驱动下,丰水年上游来水量的增加以及不断增加的地下水开采量,特别是高效灌溉技术推广后节约的灌溉水量,为绿洲过渡带开垦新的耕地提供了水源保障,致使绿洲耕地面积不断扩张,造成绿洲生态风险增大。因此,绿洲生态风险管理应当高度重视水土资源管理。
The arid area in northwest China is an important ecological barrier of homeland security. We must properly handle the relationship between agricultural production and ecological risk management in the process of oasis in the arid area of northwestern China. Scientific understanding of the driving force behind the expansion of modern oasis helps to deeply understand the mechanism of oasis land use change and provide scientific reference for oasis ecological risk management. In this paper, Bio-economic model is used to simulate the decision-making of land use behavior of farmers in three key scenarios: the increase of water consumption, the introduction of water-saving irrigation technology, and the enhancement of water resources and land resources management in the core areas of oasis and desert oasis in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Explore the driving force of modern oasis expansion. The study found that precisely because water resources management is not strict, driven by the farmers’ interest in maximizing profits, the increase of water inflow in the upper reaches of the wet year and the increasing exploitation of groundwater, especially the irrigation water saved after the promotion of efficient irrigation technology , Which provided water source protection for reclaiming new cultivated land in the transition zone of oasis, resulting in the continuous expansion of arable land in the oasis and increasing the ecological risk of the oasis. Therefore, oasis ecological risk management should attach great importance to water and soil resources management.