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本文利用1980～2004年各省出口贸易和全要素生产率数据,分析了出口贸易技术溢出对我国全要素生产率增长的短期和长期影响。我们发现,无论是从全样本数据还是沿海或内陆地区样本数据,都证实了我国出口对TFP增长存在短期和长期效应。但就整体效果而言,出口对我国TFP产生了负面的影响。产生这一问题的首要原因可能和中国出口产品缺乏核心竞争力以及参与国际分工的格局密切相关。进一步分析表明,出口对TFP的影响在沿海和内地表现出不同的效果。沿海地区模型中,无论是技术溢出长短期效应还是整体效应都十分显著,且整体效应为正,即出口促进了TFP的增长;而内陆地区只有短期效应显著,且整体效应为负,即出口制约了TFP的增长。研究认为,人力资本积累水平差异是形成这种结果的原因。
Based on the data of export trade and total factor productivity of every province from 1980 to 2004, this paper analyzes the short-term and long-term effects of technology spillover of export trade on the growth of China’s total factor productivity. We find that both the short-term and long-term effects of China’s exports on the growth of TFP are confirmed both in the whole sample data and in coastal or inland sample data. However, as a whole, exports have a negative impact on China’s TFP. The primary reason for this problem may be closely related to the lack of core competitiveness of Chinese exports and the participation in the international division of labor. Further analysis shows that the impact of exports on TFP shows different effects in the coastal and inland areas. In the coastal model, both short-term and overall effects of technology spillovers are significant and the overall effect is positive, that is, exports promote the growth of TFP; while inland regions have only significant short-term effects and negative overall effects, ie, exports Constrained the growth of TFP. According to the research, the difference in the level of human capital accumulation is the reason for this result.