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本文选择了江苏省疟疾发病率不同的２３个乡监测点进行了连续二年的ＩＦＡＴ纵向调查．结果表明，人群抗体水平与当地疟疾发病率呈正相关（ｒ＝０．９０９３）．在抗体阳性率很低（＜２％）的地区，疟疾稳定，趋于消灭；在抗体阳性率较低（５～１５％）地区，疟疾虽已降至低度，但仍需加强监测措施，为灭疟后期监测的重点。同时，低年龄组（≤１５岁）的ＩＦＡＴ更能反映实际流行程度．试用Ｄｒａｐｅｒ等的催化模型估算出的感染概率能反映当地实际发病率。
In this paper, we selected 23 rural monitoring sites with different incidence of malaria in Jiangsu Province to carry out two consecutive IFAT longitudinal surveys. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between population antibody levels and the incidence of local malaria (r = 0.9093). In areas where the antibody positive rate is very low (<2%), malaria is stable and tends to be eliminated; in areas with low antibody positive rates (5-15%), although malaria has dropped to a low level, malaria surveillance needs to be strengthened. For the latter part of the monitoring of malaria focus. At the same time, IFAT in the younger age group (≤15 years) reflects the actual prevalence. Probability of infection estimated using the catalytic model of Draper et al. Can reflect the actual local incidence.