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通过对近年来频繁发生的环境群体性事件进行分析,基于环境群体性事件的预警监测系统原理,利用德尔菲法、层次分析法等统计分析方法,对环境群体性事件的预警进行定量化研究。根据预警指标的构建原则,建立了环境群体性事件预警指标体系层次图,并对环境预警等级进行划分,得出环境群体事件的预警模型,以期为决策者作出合理的方案选择提供科学的依据。
Through the analysis of frequent environmental group events in recent years and based on the principle of early warning and monitoring system for environmental mass incidents, the quantitative analysis of early warning of environmental group events is conducted by means of statistical analysis such as Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process. According to the construction principle of early warning index, this paper establishes the hierarchy map of early warning index system of environmental mass incidents, and divides the environmental precaution levels to get the early warning model of environmental group incidents in order to provide a scientific basis for policy makers to make rational plans.