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针对传统城镇化导致农民工难以融入城市生活和土地利用效率低下的问题,中国提出了新型城镇化政策.这一政策的实施可能会对中国农村居民点的变化产生较大影响.因此,利用模型模拟的手段来探索新型城镇化政策对于未来农村居民点变化的影响具有重要意义,并且可以为农村居民点空间格局的科学规划提供参考.本文选择新型城镇化试点城市定州市作为研究区,开展政策冲击影响模拟.近年来,定州市在新型城镇化建设中进行了大量投资,但新型城镇化政策对定州市农村居民点的影响尚不明确.为了更好地模拟新型城镇化政策的影响,本文设置了“传统城镇化”、“新型城镇化”和“逆城市化”三种情景,利用FLUS(Future Land Use Simulation)模型和土地利用、经济、人口等空间数据,模拟了不同情景下定州市2030年农村居民点空间格局.然后,通过情景对比,评估了新型城镇化政策实施可能对定州市农村居民点变化的影响.研究发现:(1)2000-2015年,定州市农村居民点面积增加了11.12％.空间上,城镇周边农村居民点密度增加,农村居民点主要由耕地转化而来.减少的农村居民点主要向城市和耕地转移.(2)FLUS的整体模拟精度为0.89,可以很好地应用于农村居民点变化的模拟.(3)在三种情景下,农村居民点均沿自身边缘扩展,且越靠近城镇扩展越明显;在逆城市化情景下,农村居民点的变化最为剧烈.(4)新型城镇化政策使定州农村居民点空间格局更加稳定、集约.“,”To cope with the difficulties of integrating migrant workers into urban life and inefficient land use caused by conventional urbanization, China has proposed a new type of urbanization policy. This policy may have a sig- nificant impact on the spatial patterns of rural settlements in China. Exploring this potential impact is conducive to the proposal of scientific plans for the spatial patterns of rural settlements. Therefore, this paper chooses Dingzhou, one of the pilot cities of this new-type urbanization, as the research area to carry out a simulation study on the im- pact of the new-type urbanization policy. Dingzhou has invested heavily in the new-type urbanization construction in recent years, but the influence of the policy on rural settlements remains unclear. Based on the theoretical frame- work of previous studies, this paper set up three scenarios, namely “conventional urbanization”, “new-type urbani- zation”, and “counter-urbanization”. This paper used FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) Model and various spatial data to simulate the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou in 2030 under the different scenarios. By comparing the different scenarios, the impacts of the new-type urbanization policy on the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou were evaluated. The results indicated that: (1) From 2000 to 2015, the area of rural set- tlements in Dingzhou increased by 11.12％. Spatially, the density of rural settlements around the cities and towns increased, and rural settlement areas were mainly converted from cultivated land. Rural settlements were mainly transformed into urban land and cultivated land. (2) The overall simulation accuracy of FLUS was 0.89, so it can be well applied to the simulation of rural settlements. (3) In all three scenarios, rural settlements expanded along their edges, and the closer they were to towns, the more obvious the expansion was. In the counter-urbanization sce- nario, the change of rural settlements was most dramatic. (4) The new-type urbanization policy makes the spatial patterns of rural settlements in Dingzhou more stable and more intensive.