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基于我国现有政策及2020年覆盖城乡的战略目标,通过建立人口预测模型和基本养老保险收支预测模型,课题组引入相关的政策变量,对我国未来近50年基本养老保险收支及其可持续性进行预测,分析不同政策变量对于养老保险可持续性的影响,最后提出了具有针对性的政策建议。
Based on China’s existing policies and 2020 strategic objectives covering urban and rural areas, through the establishment of population forecast model and the basic pension insurance revenue and expenditure forecasting model, the research team to introduce relevant policy variables, the future of China’s basic pension insurance in the next 50 years and its Continuously predicts the impact of different policy variables on the sustainability of endowment insurance, and finally puts forward some targeted policy recommendations.